Savings rate at higher than expected level, with no prospect of imminent correction
Household consumption has not rebounded as much as might have been expected, particularly given the evolution of purchasing power after the Covid crisis ( Graph 1 , and modeling of the first article: link ) . As a result, the household savings rate has increased very significantly and stands at 18% (in the 2nd quarter of 2024) compared to a pre-crisis level of around 14.5% ( Graph 2 ). This "over-saving" behavior has recently become even more pronounced: in the 2nd quarter of 2024, household purchasing power increased by 1.9% over one year, while household consumption in volume only increased by 0.7%. The savings rate has increased, thus going from 16.9% to 18.0% between the 2nd quarter of 2023 and the 2nd quarter of 2024.
The usual determinants of thailand phone number list consumption and savings cannot fully explain the low consumption in the first half of 2024, despite dynamic household purchasing power, driven by the fall in inflation (see INSEE note of October 2024 ). The signals from confidence surveys give gloomy messages, not predicting an imminent turnaround: household confidence is improving but remains below its long-term average ( Graph 3 ), the balance of opinion of households on the advisability of making major purchases remains below its long-term average and the three balances of opinion relating to household savings (opportunity to save, current savings capacity and future savings capacity) are above their long-term average, without showing any decline ( Graph 4 ).