How simulations help in the fight against the spread of coronavirus and why it is important

[zakiyatasnim]

Why doesn't everyone have jet packs?
For a long time, the problem was precisely the invention of a small turbojet engine, but JetPack Aviation presented the most elegant solution. Currently, jet packs are almost always assembled in a single copy, which is not sold. The jet pack remains within the company, since flights can only be carried out after long training and classes with an instructor. The control system has been modernized dozens of times, but it still cannot be called intuitive. In the hands of the pilot, as 60 years ago, there are two levers with buttons that control the height and angle of opening of the nozzles.
After the first case of COVID-19, the disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus, was announced in the United States, reports of further infections slowly piled up. Two months later, what had been a trickle turned into a steady stream.



Experts are concerned about this so-called exponential curve. If the number of cases continued to double every three days, there would be about a hundred million cases by May.

This is math, not prophecy. Experts at the World Health Organization say the spread can be slowed if people practice “social distancing,” avoiding public places or limiting their movement altogether.

However, without any measures to slow it down, COVID-19 will continue to grow exponentially for several months. To understand why, let's simulate the spread of a fake disease through the population.

Let's call our fake disease simulitis. Let's say the disease spreads even more easily than COVID-19: whenever a healthy person comes into contact with a sick person, they get sick.

In real life, of course, people eventually recover. Once a person recovers, they can no longer transmit the disease to a healthy person or get sick again after contact with a sick person.

But let's see what happens when the disease spreads in a town kuwait number data of 200 people. We'll start the town randomly, with one sick person. Notice how the slope of the red curve, representing the number of sick people, increases rapidly as the disease spreads, and then tapers off as people recover.
so the simulite was able to spread quickly throughout the population. In a country like the United States, with a population of 330 million, the curve could continue to rise for a long time before it starts to slow down.

Forced quarantine
When it comes to real COVID-19, we would prefer to slow the spread of the virus before it infects a large portion of the U.S. population. To slow down the simulation, let’s try to create a mandatory quarantine like the one the Chinese government imposed in Hubei province, the epicenter of COVID-19.
Releasing such a device on the open market is like giving people weapons. Without extensive training, every flight can end very badly, and there is still no one and no place to teach safe flights. On the other hand, it takes a lot of time to develop regulations on where flights are possible and where they are not.