Read the RIA Novosti article to find out whether there is a chance for the ruble to strengthen in the coming year or whether the dollar will continue to grow.
Geopolitical 'warming' will result in strengthening of the ruble
In 2025, the value of the US dollar will most likely continue to grow relative to the Russian national currency, as the sanctions pressure on the Russian economy complicates payments for hydrocarbon exports, explains Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov.
Sanctions against Gazprombank in November 2024 have chile mobile database effectively made it impossible to pay for blue fuel exports, although this issue is gradually being resolved. Against this background, the surplus of the Russian Federation's trade balance account is shrinking, which entails a decrease in the supply of currency in the Russian Federation.
"However, the geopolitical background may sharply "warm up", since Donald Trump and his assistants are openly talking about their intentions to conclude a deal and complete the SVO, which will immediately result in the strengthening of the ruble. If they also start lifting sanctions, which I do not believe, since this must also be approved by the US parliament, then the Russian economy as a whole and the Russian stock market in particular will receive a very strong growth driver," Chernov notes.
According to the expert's forecasts, the dollar exchange rate in 2025 will be around 108-115 rubles, but in the case of a positive scenario and the beginning of the lifting of sanctions, it may well return to below 100 rubles. However, such a development of events is unlikely, the analyst emphasizes.
Bitcoin's State Status Is a Shot in the Foot for the Dollar
"Considering current forecasts and the absence of significant changes in the global financial system, the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 2025 will be in the range of 96-115 rubles. However, the exact values will depend on many factors, including economic policy, global markets and domestic economic conditions," says Igor Rastorguev, leading analyst at AMarkets.
It is important to remember that Trump promised to legalize cryptocurrency (bitcoin) to the status of a state currency, create a national reserve consisting of bitcoins, and even pay off the national debt with cryptocurrency, the volume of which has already exceeded 36 trillion dollars.
"Creating an official alternative to the dollar in international and domestic settlements is a shot in the foot for our own national currency. It is for this reason that the Bank of Russia and the central banks of many countries are still resisting the legalization of cryptocurrency in the country, and in many countries it is directly prohibited. So the question here is more about how clearly the new president will fulfill his promises in the heat of the election race," Rastorguev believes.