Emmanuel Macron, in December,
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:59 am
So, this government tried to do its best to govern, to vote on a budget, because, at the end of the year, we need to vote on the budget. We needed to vote on the 2025 budget, but France has a big debt problem, we're going to come back to it right after, and no one wanted to vote on this budget or at least many were against it. And, to try to force it through, the Barnier government said "we're going to put in a 49.3". What I explained to you earlier, that is to say, we want to pass the law without a vote in the National Assembly. And there, for the first time in the Fifth Republic, there was a censure, that is to say that the deputies said "OK. He wants to do a 49.3, well we're voting for censure, so this government must fall". And more than 50% of people voted for censure. So, after only five months of existence, in December 2024, Michel Barnier and his government had to leave.
appointed François Bayrou, 73, a centrist, an ally of Emmanuel Macron for a long time. They formed a government that is not very coherent. So, there are people who do not agree. We always have these three blocs in the Assembly that are very divided, who do not agree on anything. They do not agree on pensions, they do not agree on how to solve the debt problem. Some want to reduce spending; others want to increase taxes; others just want to ignore the debt. So, it is very complicated. Everyone talks about red lines. So, each party says "here are my red lines". The red lines are the things on which the parties are not ready to negotiate. But they have plenty of them and it goes against them. You have the left that says "our red line is you must not... In any case, you must ensure that people retire earlier". And the right says, "No, our red line is that they have to leave later."
So, everything is opposed. Censorship weighs permanently, that is to say that each decision of the government can lead to a new censure. So, there is no room for maneuver. We cannot… Some might say “we just have to hold elections again, dissolve the National Assembly again, ask the people again and vote again”. That is impossible. The Constitution prohibits doing so before a period of one year. So, the next dissolution could take place in July 2025. So, until then, we will keep the fragmented National Assembly that we have. That said, it is not because we would vote again that we would have different results. The country is fragmented, so the National Assembly is too.
One solution could have been for iran whatsapp number data Emmanuel Macron to resign. With another president of the Republic who has more legitimacy, we could have a legislative election that gives a clearer result. But he said he did not want to do it, so it is chaos, literally, from a political point of view in France, while the problems to be managed are major.
I promised to mention some risks. We have a problem managing debt. It's not new. French debt has been increasing for 30 years. But at the end of 2024, we were at 3,300 billion euros. That's 112% of GDP, so 112% of the wealth produced by the country every year. So, we have more debt than we produce in a year. And the average in the European Union is 82%. We are at 112. Of course, France is not the worst student in Europe, but still, we feel that for a country that is supposed to be an economic engine of Europe, it can't actually work.
There is a big loss of confidence in the population towards its politicians. What I quoted to you before, very gently, by saying that there were arrangements so that the National Rally would not win the legislative elections. We have the people who vote for a National Assembly with three big parties. We put a Prime Minister from another party. And really, what has, in my opinion, ruined the confidence in politicians is what happened in 2005, since in 2005, there was a referendum on the European Constitution. The French said no. And three years later, well, we imposed this Constitution without asking the people. So, we ask a question. It's as if I were to say to my children "children, what do you want to eat?" They say pizza, and I answer them "OK, you will have green beans". We can't ask the people a question and not listen to the answer. It's not possible. So there is a huge loss of confidence.
There is a loss of sovereignty. So, this is a subject that we could talk about in Café avec Johan, if you want. But France and all European countries have clearly lost their sovereignty. I am rather pro-European by nature. I lived in Austria, I worked in Germany, I crossed the border between France and Germany every day for years, so I am pro-European. But the way Europe is organized, with a lot of technocrats, a big bureaucracy, personally, it does not suit me and it does not suit a lot of people. I spoke about this in detail in an academy module on the European Union. But this is a real issue and a real subject, the loss of sovereignty of European countries, and particularly of France.
appointed François Bayrou, 73, a centrist, an ally of Emmanuel Macron for a long time. They formed a government that is not very coherent. So, there are people who do not agree. We always have these three blocs in the Assembly that are very divided, who do not agree on anything. They do not agree on pensions, they do not agree on how to solve the debt problem. Some want to reduce spending; others want to increase taxes; others just want to ignore the debt. So, it is very complicated. Everyone talks about red lines. So, each party says "here are my red lines". The red lines are the things on which the parties are not ready to negotiate. But they have plenty of them and it goes against them. You have the left that says "our red line is you must not... In any case, you must ensure that people retire earlier". And the right says, "No, our red line is that they have to leave later."
So, everything is opposed. Censorship weighs permanently, that is to say that each decision of the government can lead to a new censure. So, there is no room for maneuver. We cannot… Some might say “we just have to hold elections again, dissolve the National Assembly again, ask the people again and vote again”. That is impossible. The Constitution prohibits doing so before a period of one year. So, the next dissolution could take place in July 2025. So, until then, we will keep the fragmented National Assembly that we have. That said, it is not because we would vote again that we would have different results. The country is fragmented, so the National Assembly is too.
One solution could have been for iran whatsapp number data Emmanuel Macron to resign. With another president of the Republic who has more legitimacy, we could have a legislative election that gives a clearer result. But he said he did not want to do it, so it is chaos, literally, from a political point of view in France, while the problems to be managed are major.
I promised to mention some risks. We have a problem managing debt. It's not new. French debt has been increasing for 30 years. But at the end of 2024, we were at 3,300 billion euros. That's 112% of GDP, so 112% of the wealth produced by the country every year. So, we have more debt than we produce in a year. And the average in the European Union is 82%. We are at 112. Of course, France is not the worst student in Europe, but still, we feel that for a country that is supposed to be an economic engine of Europe, it can't actually work.
There is a big loss of confidence in the population towards its politicians. What I quoted to you before, very gently, by saying that there were arrangements so that the National Rally would not win the legislative elections. We have the people who vote for a National Assembly with three big parties. We put a Prime Minister from another party. And really, what has, in my opinion, ruined the confidence in politicians is what happened in 2005, since in 2005, there was a referendum on the European Constitution. The French said no. And three years later, well, we imposed this Constitution without asking the people. So, we ask a question. It's as if I were to say to my children "children, what do you want to eat?" They say pizza, and I answer them "OK, you will have green beans". We can't ask the people a question and not listen to the answer. It's not possible. So there is a huge loss of confidence.
There is a loss of sovereignty. So, this is a subject that we could talk about in Café avec Johan, if you want. But France and all European countries have clearly lost their sovereignty. I am rather pro-European by nature. I lived in Austria, I worked in Germany, I crossed the border between France and Germany every day for years, so I am pro-European. But the way Europe is organized, with a lot of technocrats, a big bureaucracy, personally, it does not suit me and it does not suit a lot of people. I spoke about this in detail in an academy module on the European Union. But this is a real issue and a real subject, the loss of sovereignty of European countries, and particularly of France.