Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable to threats
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2025 4:49 am
The slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone (forecasted at +1.6% in 2019) and the US (+2.3%) exposes emerging markets to a domino effect.
The growth rate in global trade is expected to continue to decline in 2019. However, it has also been pointed out that the slowdown in growth in the United States also has a positive effect, due to the lower probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which reduces the risk of capital outflows from emerging markets.
In 2019, political risks should therefore be monitored in emerging linkedin data economies, including in Africa (Nigeria, South Africa and Algeria), where citizens now have more opportunities to express their dissatisfaction (in the context of the electoral calendar) due to the increased availability of the internet.
Despite the uncertain political and security situation, Coface points to a more positive outlook for Mozambique (currently D), which has recorded its highest level of foreign reserves since 2014 and an economic growth rate above 3%, and Rwanda (A4), where the business climate is steadily improving and the pace of reforms has been maintained.
The growing importance of economies based on the oil industry
Coface is raising the country ratings of oil-based economies where oil prices remain moderate despite the volatile environment. These include Angola (now C), Azerbaijan (B), Canada (A2), the United Arab Emirates (A3) and Trinidad and Tobago (B).
Lebanon is the only country to have its rating downgraded this year (now D), due to the ongoing difficult economic situation.
The growth rate in global trade is expected to continue to decline in 2019. However, it has also been pointed out that the slowdown in growth in the United States also has a positive effect, due to the lower probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which reduces the risk of capital outflows from emerging markets.
In 2019, political risks should therefore be monitored in emerging linkedin data economies, including in Africa (Nigeria, South Africa and Algeria), where citizens now have more opportunities to express their dissatisfaction (in the context of the electoral calendar) due to the increased availability of the internet.
Despite the uncertain political and security situation, Coface points to a more positive outlook for Mozambique (currently D), which has recorded its highest level of foreign reserves since 2014 and an economic growth rate above 3%, and Rwanda (A4), where the business climate is steadily improving and the pace of reforms has been maintained.
The growing importance of economies based on the oil industry
Coface is raising the country ratings of oil-based economies where oil prices remain moderate despite the volatile environment. These include Angola (now C), Azerbaijan (B), Canada (A2), the United Arab Emirates (A3) and Trinidad and Tobago (B).
Lebanon is the only country to have its rating downgraded this year (now D), due to the ongoing difficult economic situation.